Case Study - 2010 Pakistan floods
On that occasion, forecasts on 28 July 2010 showed probabilities up to 100% of exceeding the severe alert level (i.e., 20 yr return period) in most of the Indus River basin, with peak flow traveling downstream in the first half of August 2010.
20-day ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) on 28 July 2010
It shows a 20-day ensemble streamflow prediction for a dynamic reporting point in the Indus River, few kilometers downstream the city of Sukkur, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Forecasts show a sharp rise of discharge in the river, with expected peak of the ensemble mean on the 10 August, hence 13 days after the prediction was issued. The uncertainty range increases with the lead time, though it almost completely exceeds the severe alert level from the 8 to the 12 August.
Satellite images of the Indus River
Satellite images of the Indus River on 10 July 2010 (top) and on 11 August 2010 (bottom). Top panel also shows, with purple shadings, the maximum probability of exceeding the severe threshold in a 20-day forecast range (forecast on 28 July 2010).
Read more about the case study
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F. GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warningHydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.