Comparing GloFAS-Seasonal to Statistical Forecast Probabilities

A new paper comparing the GloFAS seasonal river flow forecasts with simple statistical probabilities of high or low river flow during El Niño events has been published and can be accessed here.

The work compares statistical probabilities based on historical data, with forecasts from GloFAS-Seasonal, to evaluate which is more useful for predicting hydrological extremes (flood and drought hazard) during El Niño. The paper highlights regions of the globe where each forecast is (or is not) skilful at predicting high and low river flow during El Niño, and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. 

This research was undertaken at the University of Reading, in collaboration with ECMWF and GloFAS. 

By Rebecca Emerton     April 1, 2019, 8:47 a.m.